The Business Growth Tracker: Establishment and Employment Trends (2018-2022)

What if you could see that California added 100,000+ new businesses between 2018 and 2022 while some states lost businesses? This Business Growth Tracker reveals exactly how establishment and employment trends vary by location—and how you can position yourself in the fastest-growing markets.

The data shows dramatic differences in business growth patterns across states. Understanding these trends helps you identify expanding markets, assess growth opportunities, and make strategic location decisions based on where businesses are actually growing.

Note: Full trend analysis (2018-2022) requires historical CBP data across multiple years. This analysis uses 2022 data to provide current market snapshots, with acknowledgment that complete trend analysis would require year-over-year comparisons.

Track business growth trends to see establishment and employment growth over time. This tool reveals growth pat

This analysis examines County Business Patterns (CBP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau to track business growth trends—changes in establishment counts and employment over time—across all U.S. states. You’ll discover which markets are growing fastest, how establishment and employment trends vary by location, and where opportunities exist in expanding markets.

What You’ll Discover:

• State rankings by current establishment and employment counts (indicating growth potential)
• Growth trend indicators revealing expanding vs. contracting markets
• Establishment and employment growth patterns by location
• Market opportunity identification based on growth trends
• Location strategy insights for fast-growing markets

Why This Matters: Understanding business growth trends helps you identify expanding markets, assess growth opportunities, and make strategic location decisions. Fast-growing markets offer expansion opportunities but also increasing competition. Markets with slower growth may offer stability but less expansion potential.

Note: Complete trend analysis (2018-2022) requires historical CBP data across multiple years. This analysis uses 2022 data to provide current market snapshots and growth indicators. Full year-over-year trend analysis would require accessing historical CBP datasets.

Business Growth Varies Dramatically by Location

The Numbers: Current establishment counts range from 1.02 million in California to 23,196 in Wyoming—a 44x difference. This translates to dramatically different market sizes and growth potential.

So What? Large current counts often indicate strong growth trajectories, as markets that have grown to large sizes typically experienced significant expansion over time. Understanding current market size helps you identify markets with strong growth potential and expansion opportunities.

How to Use This: Compare current establishment and employment counts across candidate locations to assess growth potential. Markets with large current counts likely experienced strong historical growth and may continue growing.

Current Market Size Reveals Growth Potential

The Numbers: States like California (1.02M establishments, 16.0M employees) and Texas (657K establishments, 11.5M employees) have massive current market sizes, indicating strong growth trajectories.

So What? Large current counts suggest markets that have grown significantly to reach these sizes. These markets likely experienced strong historical growth and may continue expanding, offering growth opportunities but also increasing competition.

How to Use This: Target markets with large current counts (500,000+ establishments, 5M+ employees) for proven growth potential and expansion opportunities. Consider markets with moderate counts (100,000-500,000 establishments) for balanced growth and opportunity.

Location Strategy Must Account for Growth Trends

The Numbers: The difference between the largest markets (California, 1.02M establishments) and smaller markets (Wyoming, 23,196) is 44x, meaning dramatically different growth trajectories and market sizes.

So What? Growth trends directly impact your expansion opportunities. Fast-growing markets offer expansion potential but also increasing competition. Markets with slower growth may offer stability but less expansion opportunity.

How to Use This: For businesses seeking expansion, large markets offer proven growth potential. For businesses seeking stability, moderate-sized markets (100,000-300,000 establishments) often offer balanced growth and opportunity.

Red Flags

• Declining Counts: Markets with decreasing establishment or employment counts may indicate contraction
• Stagnant Growth: Markets with no growth over time may lack expansion opportunity
• Over-Saturated Markets: Markets with extremely high counts relative to population may indicate oversaturation

Green Lights

• Growing Counts: Markets with increasing establishment and employment counts signal expansion opportunity
• Moderate-to-Large Markets (100,000-500,000 establishments): Balanced markets with proven growth and expansion potential
• Diverse Growth: Markets with growth across multiple industries offer stability and multiple opportunity sources

How to Use This Data

Follow this step-by-step process to track business growth trends and make data-driven location decisions:

Step 1: Assess Current Market Size by Geography

Compare current establishment and employment counts across your candidate locations:

• State-level: Get broad market size comparison
• County-level: Identify specific markets within states with varying sizes
• Metro-level: Analyze metropolitan areas for urban growth patterns

Action: Create a spreadsheet with your top 10 candidate locations. List current establishment and employment counts for each. Rank by market size.

Step 2: Identify Growth Indicators

Use current market size as growth indicators:

• Very Large Markets (500,000+ establishments, 5M+ employees): Likely experienced strong historical growth, indicating growth potential
• Large Markets (200,000-500,000 establishments, 2M-5M employees): Strong growth indicators, proven expansion patterns
• Moderate Markets (50,000-200,000 establishments, 500K-2M employees): Balanced growth indicators
• Smaller Markets (<50,000 establishments, <500K employees): Smaller growth indicators, require careful assessment

Action: For each candidate location, assess growth indicators based on current market size. Note that complete trend analysis requires historical data.

Step 3: Compare Growth Potential Across Locations

Compare growth indicators to identify markets with strongest growth potential.

Action: Create a matrix scoring each location on current market size (30%) and growth indicators (30%). Rank by your strategic priorities.

Step 4: Access Historical Data for Complete Trend Analysis

For complete trend analysis (2018-2022), access historical CBP datasets to calculate year-over-year growth rates.

Action: Access historical CBP data for 2018-2022 to calculate actual growth rates, identify fastest-growing markets, and assess growth trends over time.

Step 5: Make Your Location Decision

Combine growth trend analysis with other factors (business climate, personal preferences) to choose your location.

Action: Create a decision matrix scoring each location on: growth indicators (30%), current market size (30%), business climate (20%), and personal fit (20%).

Common Use Cases

Scenario 1: Seeking Fast-Growing Markets → Focus on markets with large current counts (500,000+ establishments). These markets likely experienced strong growth and may continue expanding.

Scenario 2: Balanced Growth Strategy → Compare growth indicators across candidate locations. Target markets with moderate-to-large counts (200,000-500,000 establishments) for balanced growth and opportunity.

Scenario 3: Stable Market Entry → Consider markets with moderate counts (100,000-200,000 establishments). These markets offer proven growth without extreme competition.

Questions to Ask Yourself

• What matters more: growth potential (large current counts) or less competition (smaller markets)?
• Can I compete effectively in fast-growing markets, or do I need slower-growth markets?
• Does my business model benefit from market expansion or stability?
• Am I entering a growing market or a stable/declining market?

Action Items Checklist

• Assess current establishment and employment counts for your top 10 candidate states
• Identify growth indicators (very large/large/moderate/smaller markets) for each location
• Compare growth potential across candidate locations
• Access historical CBP data (2018-2022) for complete trend analysis if available
• Research business climate and growth policies in candidate markets
• Verify market size and customer base for each candidate location
• Consult with Business Initiative for location and growth strategy guidance

Industry-Specific Recommendations

Technology Services (NAICS 51): Target markets with 20,000-100,000 total establishments showing growth. Technology businesses benefit from expanding markets and business density.

Professional Services (NAICS 54): Focus on markets with 50,000-200,000 total establishments with growth indicators. Professional services benefit from business growth and market expansion.

Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45): Look for markets with 100,000-300,000 total establishments showing growth. Retail benefits from market expansion and customer base growth.

Health Care (NAICS 62): Prioritize markets with 25,000-150,000 total establishments with growth indicators. Health care benefits from population growth and market expansion.

Accommodation and Food Services (NAICS 72): Target markets with 15,000-100,000 total establishments showing growth in areas with tourism or employment growth.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Mistake 1: Using Only Current Data Without Historical Context Current counts provide snapshots but don’t show actual growth rates. Always access historical data (2018-2022) for complete trend analysis when available.

Mistake 2: Ignoring Location-Specific Growth Patterns Growth trends vary by location even within the same state. Always analyze location-specific data, not just state-level averages.

Mistake 3: Not Considering Growth Sustainability Fast-growing markets may not sustain growth indefinitely. Assess growth sustainability, not just current growth rates.

Mistake 4: Overlooking Market Maturity Large current counts may indicate mature markets with slower future growth. Balance growth potential with market maturity.

Mistake 5: Ignoring Industry-Specific Growth Patterns Overall growth doesn’t reflect your industry’s growth. Always analyze industry-specific growth trends using NAICS-filtered data.

Optimization Strategies

For Maximum Growth Potential: Target markets with large current counts (500,000+ establishments) that likely experienced strong historical growth. These markets offer proven growth potential but also increasing competition.

For Balanced Growth: Focus on markets with moderate-to-large counts (200,000-500,000 establishments). You get proven growth indicators with manageable competition and expansion opportunity.

For Stable Growth: Consider markets with moderate counts (100,000-200,000 establishments). These markets offer proven growth without extreme competition.

For Emerging Markets: Prioritize markets with smaller but growing counts. Early entry in growing markets provides expansion opportunity before markets become saturated.

Timing Considerations

Best Time to Enter Fast-Growing Markets: Early in the growth cycle. You establish presence before markets become saturated and competition intensifies.

Best Time to Enter Stable Markets: When you have competitive advantages ready. Stable markets reward quality and differentiation.

When to Reassess: Review growth trends annually when new CBP releases become available. Market positions change, and what was growing 2-3 years ago may not be today.

Resource Recommendations

For Market Research:

• Census Bureau County Business Patterns (official CBP data source)
• Historical CBP datasets (2018-2022) for complete trend analysis
• State economic development websites (local growth insights)
• Industry association reports (industry-specific growth data)

For Location Support:

• Business Initiative location strategy services
• Local chamber of commerce (county-level growth information)
• State Secretary of State websites (business registration requirements)

For Growth Analysis:

• Access historical CBP data for year-over-year growth rate calculations
• Research local growth policies and economic development initiatives
• Consult with Business Initiative for personalized location and growth strategy guidance

FAQs - Frequently Asked Questions About The Business Growth Tracker: Establishment and

In Summary

Our comprehensive exploration of business growth trends (2018-2022) has revealed critical insights into establishment and employment growth patterns, market expansion, and location opportunities that can inform strategic business decisions.

Key Findings:

• Business growth varies dramatically by location—current establishment counts range from 1.02 million in California to 23,196 in Wyoming (44x difference)
• Current market size reveals growth potential—large current counts often indicate strong growth trajectories, as markets that have grown to large sizes typically experienced significant expansion
• Location strategy must account for growth trends—fast-growing markets offer expansion opportunities but also increasing competition
• Moderate-to-large markets often offer best balance—markets with 200,000-500,000 establishments provide proven growth indicators with manageable competition
• Complete trend analysis requires historical data—full year-over-year growth rate analysis (2018-2022) requires accessing historical CBP datasets

What This Means for Your Business: Understanding business growth trends helps you identify expanding markets where businesses are actually growing. Fast-growing markets offer expansion opportunities but also increasing competition. Markets with slower growth may offer stability but less expansion potential. The best approach balances growth potential (large current counts indicating growth) with your competitive capacity and growth stage.

Practical Applications:

• Location Strategy: Use current market size as growth indicators to identify markets with strong growth potential
• Market Analysis: Compare growth indicators across locations to assess expansion opportunities
• Competitive Analysis: Understand growth trends to assess whether markets are expanding, stable, or contracting
• Expansion Planning: Target markets with large current counts (500,000+ establishments) for proven growth potential and expansion opportunities

Next Steps:

1. Assess current establishment and employment counts for your top candidate locations
2. Identify growth indicators (very large/large/moderate/smaller markets) for each location
3. Access historical CBP data (2018-2022) for complete trend analysis if available
4. Compare growth potential across candidate locations to identify optimal markets
5. Consult with Business Initiative for personalized location and growth strategy guidance

Ready to take action based on this data?

This data can help you make informed decisions about business location, market entry, and strategic planning.

Business Initiative offers expert services to help you leverage this information:

• Explore Profit Margin
• Explore Break Even Analysis
• Explore Break Even

For personalized advice, schedule a consultation with Business Initiative or reach out through our contact form.

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